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Table 2 Results of the time series analyses, 1970–2011

From: The influence of demographic factors on the supply of company training places in Germany

  Supplied apprentice-ship places a) (1970-2011) New contracts a) (1970-2011) New contracts a) (1970-2011) New contracts a) (1970-2011)
(I) (II) (III) (IV)
GROWTH*PRE-UNIFICATION (1970-1990) -0.47* (0.24) -0.25 (0.17) -0.08 (0.19) -0.24 (0.17)
GROWTH*POST-UNIFICATION (1991-2011) 1.07** (0.44) 1.03*** (0.3) 0.68** (0.33) 1.01*** (0.3)
LABOUR MARKET*PRE-UNIFICATION (1970-1990) 0.31 (0.18) 0.04 (0.13) 0.04 (0.14) 0.04 (0.12)
LABOUR MARKET*POST-UNIFICATION (1991-2011) 0.43 (0.36) 0.38 (0.25) 0.46* (0.26) 0.38 (0.25)
Graduates from schools of general educationb)*PRE-UNIFICATION (1970-1990) 0.62*** (0.19) 0.8*** (0.13) 0.76*** (0.14) -0.13 (0.35)
Graduates from schools of general educationb)*POST-UNIFICATION (1991-2011) 0.71 (0.56) 0.99** (0.39) 0.64 (0.42) 0.85* (0.46)
Share of lower secondary school graduates in the total number of graduatesb)*PRE-UNIFICATION (1970-1990) 0.3 (0.2) 0.36** (0.14)   
Share of lower secondary school graduates in the total number of graduatesb)*POST-UNIFICATION (1991-2011) -0.41* (0.22) -0.38** (0.15)   
Share of intermediate secondary school graduates in the total number of graduatesb)*PRE-UNIFICATION (‘70-’90) 0.06 (0.16) 0.25** (0.11)   
Share of intermediate secondary school graduates in the total number of graduatesb)*POST-UNIFICATION (‘91-’11) 0.61 (0.41) 0.74** (0.28)   
Lower secondary school graduates in the total number of graduatesb)*PRE-UNIFICATION (1970-1990)     0.79*** (0.29)
Lower secondary school graduates in the total number of graduatesb)*POST-UNIFICATION (1991-2011)     -0.8** (0.32)
Intermediate secondary school graduates in the total number of graduatesb)*PRE-UNIFICATION (1970-1990)     0.37** (0.16)
Intermediate secondary school graduates in the total number of graduatesb)*POST-UNIFICATION (1991-2011)     1.04** (0.39)
Bargaining apprenticeship payc) -0.17 (0.25) -0.21 (0.17) -0.23 (0.18) -0.21 (0.17)
Trend variable 0.02** (0.01) 0.01*** (0) 0.01 (0.01) 0.01*** (0)
R-squared 0.57 0.76 0.66 0.80
Adjusted R-squared 0.41 0.67 0.59 0.73
Durbin-Watson statistic 1.67 1.91 1.43 2.13
N 42 42 42 42
  1. Standard errors in parentheses; * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01, all variables in growth rates.
  2. a)Survey of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB): Training contracts newly concluded by 30 September.
  3. b)From schools of general education. Statistical publications of the KMK: Schüler, Klassen, Lehrer und Absolventen der Schulen; various years.
  4. c)Source BIBB: Database apprenticeships pay; values for 1970 to 1976 are estimated.