Table 1 Discrete time event history model for the transition to vocational training in the dual system after secondary schooling (observed within the first 3 years after school), Data: GSOEP 2012, Federal Labour Office 2014, Federal Statistical Office 2014, own calculations

Time-specific information

 Baseline 1 year of school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school)

0.082***

(0.015)

0.082***

(0.018)

0.082***

(0.017)

0.081***

(0.018)

 Baseline 2 1st year after school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school)

0.062**

(0.021)

0.062***

(0.024)

0.062***

(0.023)

0.064***

(0.024)

 Baseline 3 2nd year after school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school)

0.015

(0.035)

0.015

(0.039)

0.014

(0.039)

0.017

(0.044)

Unemployment information on regional level (s)

 Unemployment rate (district)

−0.010***

(0.002)

−0.016***

(0.003)

−0.009***

(0.004)

−0.016***

(0.005)

 Average unemployment (1st neighbour districts)

−0.008**

(0.004)

−0.017**

(0.002)

−0.013**

(0.004)

 Average unemployment (2nd neighbour districts)

0.004

(0.001)

Age-specific population information on regional levels (s)

 Change in 15–18 year olds (district)

−0.007***

(0.004)

−0.008**

(0.003)

−0.006*

(0.003)

−0.007*

(0.003)

 Change in 15–18 year olds (1st neighbour district)

−0.004

(0.015)

0.001

(0.016)

0.004

(0.021)

 Change in 15–18 year olds (2nd neighbour district)

−0.008

(0.006)

 Year (1999–2006) (ref. 2007–2011)

−0.119***

(0.023)

−0.119***

(0.022)

−0.119***

(0.022)

−0.117**

(0.022)

Personal information

 Sex (male)

0.117***

(0.016)

0.119***

(0.016)

0.114***

(0.016)

0.114***

(0.017)

 Dropout without certif. (ref. lower sec.)

−0.046*

(0.026)

−0.052**

(0.027)

−0.055

(0.028)

−0.053

(0.028)

 Intermediate secondary certif. (ref. lower sec.)

0.108***

(0.018)

0.107***

(0.017)

0.108***

(0.017)

0.109***

(0.018)

Social and ethnic background information

 Parents have intermediate school degree (ref. no/lower school degree)

0.068***

(0.021)

0.073***

(0.021)

0.078***

(0.021)

0.073***

(0.023)

 Parents have university entrance diploma (ref. no/lower school degree)

−0.130***

(0.022)

−0.129***

(0.021)

−0.127***

(0.024)

−0.127***

(0.025)

 Parents have vocational training degree (ref. no voc. degree)

0.061***

(0.022)

0.063***

(0.021)

0.058**

(0.021)

0.060**

(0.022)

 Parents have university degree (ref. no voc. degree)

0.002

(0.037)

0.000

(0.040)

−0.001

(0.041)

−0.000

(0.041)

 Immigrant background

−0.034***

(0.020)

−0.037**

(0.020)

−0.040**

(0.021)

−0.034**

(0.019)

Interaction terms

 Unempl. home district * Unempl. 1st neighb. district

0.001**

(0.000)

0.001*

(0.000)

0.001**

(0.000)

 Unempl. home district * Unempl. 1st neighb. * Unempl. 2nd neighb. district

0.000

(0.001)

 Unempl. home district * dropout

−0.002

(0.001)

 Unempl. home district * intermed. school certif.

0.002

(0.002)

 Unempl. 1st neighb. district * dropout

0.011

(0.014)

 Unempl. 1st neighb. district * intermed. school certif.

0.016**

(0.002)

 Unempl. home district * Unempl.1st neighb. district * dropout

0.004

(0.022)

 Unempl. home district * Unempl. 1st neighb. district * intermed. school certif.

−0.005*

(0.022)

 (Mc Fadden’s) pseudo R²

0.1547

0.1571

0.1581

0.1688

 LR

1726.07

1783.76

1794.33

1810.38

 N person years (n persons)

3.970

(2.144)

3970

(2144)

3970

(2144)

3970

(2144)