The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 10 First-differences regression (occupation-state-level, apprentices with a mid-level school degree)

Dependent variable (log):\(\Delta {a}_{ost, t-1}\)	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	0.000842	0.000830	0.0000311	− 0.00000704	0.0000177
	(0.000526)	(0.000526)	(0.000565)	(0.000568)	(0.000569)
\(\Delta \mathrm{log number}\) of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		0.0855^a	0.0561^b	0.0517^b	0.0498^b
		(0.0235)	(0.0253)	(0.0254)	(0.0254)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			− 0.000123	− 0.000285	− 0.000281
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			(0.000477)	(0.000482)	(0.000482)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st-1,t-2}\)			0.158^a	0.149^a	0.129^b
			(0.0220)	(0.0222)	(0.0225)
Trend*East Germany					− 0.0252^a
Trend*East Germany					(0.00327)
Occupation-level trends	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Constant	− 0.0288^a	− 0.0271^a	− 0.0187^a	− 0.297^a	− 0.297^a
Constant	(0.00164)	(0.00168)	(0.00180)	(0.0467)	(0.0467)
Observations	33,754	33,754	30,129	30,129	30,129
R-squared	0.000	0.001	0.001	0.014	0.015

Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust standard errors in parentheses. ^a Significant at the 1%-level; ^b significant at the 5%-level; ^c significant at the 10%-level. Data sources: Vocational training statistics of the statistical offices of the federal and state governments, ifo Business Climate Index