The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 5 First-differences regression (occupation-state-level, 2007–2018)

Dependent variable: log number of apprenticeship contracts \(\Delta {a}_{ost, t-1}\)	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	0.00211^a	0.00215^a	0.00284^a	0.00280^a	0.00279^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	(0.000429)	(0.000457)	(0.000457)	(0.000459)	(0.000459)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			0.00201^a	0.00186^a	0.00187^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			(0.000385)	(0.000388)	(0.000388)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)						0.00457^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)						(0.000650)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)						0.00245^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)						(0.000576)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		0.215^a	0.211^a	0.200^a	0.191^a	0.194^a
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		(0.0230)	(0.0251)	(0.0252)	(0.0251)	(0.0251)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st-1,t-2}\)			0.0908^a	0.0742^a	0.0528^a	0.0568^a
			(0.0246)	(0.0247)	(0.0250)	(0.0250)
Trend*East Germany					− 0.00233^a	− 0.00273^a
Trend*East Germany					(0.000411)	(0.000272)
Occupation-level trends	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Constant	− 0.0250^a	− 0.0208^a	− 0.0244^a	− 0.118^a	− 0.114^b	− 0.114^b
Constant	(0.00145)	(0.00147)	(0.00159)	(0.0450)	(0.0450)	(0.0477)
Observations	38,880	38,880	34,160	34,160	34,160	34,160
R-squared	0.001	0.003	0.005	0.028	0.028	0.029

Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust standard errors in parentheses. ^a Significant at the 1%-level; ^b significant at the 5%-level; ^c significant at the 10%-level. Data sources: Vocational training statistics of the statistical offices of the federal and state governments, ifo Business Climate Index (BCI), ifo Employment Barometer (EB)