The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 8 First-differences regression, prematurely terminated training contracts (state-level)

Dependent variable (log):\(\Delta {tc}_{st, t-1}\)	Model 1	Model 2
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	− 0.0000517	0.0000429
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	(0.000381)	(0.000373)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		0.00125
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		(0.0445)
Constant	0.000373	− 0.00333
Constant	(0.00535)	(0.00599)
Observations	176	174
R-squared	0.148	0.428

Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust standard errors in parentheses. ^a Significant at the 1%-level; ^b significant at the 5%-level; ^c significant at the 10%-level. Data sources: Vocational training statistics of the statistical offices of the federal and state governments, ifo Business Climate Index