The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 9 First-differences regression (occupation-state-level, apprentices with a high school degree)

Dependent variable (log):\(\Delta {a}_{ost, t-1}\)	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	0.00196^a	0.00247^a	0.00273^a	0.00267^a	0.00257^b
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	(0.000592)	(0.000590)	(0.000640)	(0.000644)	(0.000645)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		0.179^a	0.178^a	0.177^a	0.160^a
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		(0.0182)	(0.0184)	(0.0184)	(0.0186)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			0.00181^a	0.00165^a	0.00163^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			(0.000552)	(0.000558)	(0.000557)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st-1,t-2}\)			0.0634^a	0.0617^a	0.0433^a
			(0.0174)	(0.0174)	(0.0178)
Trend*East Germany					− 0.0527^b
Trend*East Germany					(0.00426)
Occupation-level trends	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Constant	0.0301^a	0.0299^a	0.0287^a	− 0.0488	− 0.0366
Constant	(0.00197)	(0.00195)	(0.00215)	(0.0343)	(0.0391)
Observations	27,367	27,367	24,669	24,669	24,669
R-squared	0.001	0.005	0.005	0.021	0.023

Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust standard errors in parentheses. ^a Significant at the 1%-level; ^b significant at the 5%-level; ^c significant at the 10%-level. Data sources: Vocational training statistics of the statistical offices of the federal and state governments, ifo Business Climate Index