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Table 2 Logit model for the probability of undertaking a new VET programme after early termination (marginal effects)

From: Early termination of vocational training: dropout or stopout?

 

Base model

Training cell clusters

Training cell clusters with low early termination rates

Time of termination

 Trial period (reference)

   

 First year1

− 0.012

− 0.015

0.003

(− 0.55)

(− 0.68)

(0.10)

 Second year

− 0.046**

− 0.049**

− 0.056*

(− 2.02)

(− 2.20)

(− 1.82)

 Third/Fourth year

− 0.113***

− 0.120***

− 0.118***

(− 4.95)

(− 4.09)

(− 2.82)

Training conditions

 Log of VET earnings

0.018

0.028

− 0.008

(1.00)

(1.54)

(− 0.33)

Establishment size

   

 More than 250 employees (reference)

   

 Less than 10 employees

0.113***

  

(3.13)

  

 Between 10 and 49 employees

0.118***

  

(3.28)

  

 Between 50 and 249 employees

0.077**

  

(2.21)

  

Industry

Yes

  

Duration of apprenticeship for occupation

   

3.5 years (reference)

   

3 years

0.007

0.013

0.015

 

(0.31)

(0.63)

(0.51)

Share of early terminations by occupation

− 0.001

 

0.001

 

(− 1.80)

 

(0.64)

Schooling

No certificate (reference)

 Lower secondary school leaving certificate

0.130***

0.169***

0.186***

(3.87)

(5.30)

(4.57)

 Pre-vocational school leaving certificate

0.020

0.038

0.040

(0.38)

(0.73)

(0.50)

 Vocational school leaving certificate

0.091

0.125*

0.144

(1.17)

(1.67)

(1.50)

 Secondary school leaving certificate

0.197***

0.243***

0.252***

(5.22)

(6.49)

(5.03)

 Higher school leaving certificate

0.090*

0.116**

0.147**

(1.80)

(2.48)

(2.46)

Others

0.118

.116

0.059

(1.40)

(1.18)

(0.43)

Individual characteristics

 Female

− 0.04*

− 0.31

− 0.023

(− 0.193)

(− 1.53)

(− 0–85)

 German nationality

0.136***

0.133***

0.192***

(3.62)

(3.44)

(3.31)

 Over 20 years at time of termination

− 0.102***

− 0.115***

− 0.070**

(− 4.56)

(− 5.38)

(− 2.42)

Start of VET

 1999 (reference)

   

 2000

− 0.027

− 0.015

− 0.000

(− 1.21)

(− 0.65)

(− 0.01)

 2001

− 0.028

− 0.019

− 0.021

(− 1.20)

(− 0.84)

(− 0.64)

 2002

− 0.067**

− 0.058**

0.057

(− 2.83)

(− 2.34)

(− 1.65)

N

2896

2896

1537

Pseudo-R2

0.0669***

0.0502***

0.0490***

  1. Source: Saarland Apprenticeship Panel; author’s calculations
  2. *p < 0.10. **p < 0.05. ***p < 0.01. 1 Between 5 and 12 months after the start of VET