Table 3 Multinomial logit model for the probability of entering a new VET programme by occupational change after a contract termination (marginal effects)

Time of termination

Trial period (reference)

 First year¹

0.008

0.038

− 0.046**

0.011

0.043*

− 0.054**

− 0.011

0.071**

− 0.060*

(0.35)

(1.69)

(− 1.98)

(0.47)

(1.88)

(− 2.29)

(− 0.35)

(2.25)

(− 1.88)

 Second year

0.042*

0.093***

− 0.135***

0.045**

0.098***

− 0.144***

0.048

0.103***

− 0.151***

(1.85)

(4.15)

(− 5.67)

(2.03)

(4.40)

(− 5.99)

(1.56)

(3.33)

(-4.75)

 Third/Fourth year

0.118***

0.143***

− 0.260***

0.126***

0.142***

− 0.268***

0.128***

0.175***

− 0.303***

(4.19)

(5.13)

(− 8.31)

(4.29)

(5.07)

(− 8.46)

(3.03)

(4.61)

(− 6.81)

Training conditions

 Log of VET earnings

− 0.021

0.060***

− 0.039

− 0.028*

0.051***

− 0.023

0.008

0.051**

− 0.059**

(− 1.13)

(3.42)

(− 2.02)

(− 1.56)

(2.99)

(− 1.19)

(0.32)

(2.17)

(-2.29)

Establishment size

More than 250 employees (reference)

 Less than 10 employees

− 0.121***

0.066

0.055

(− 3.34)

(1.61)

(1.29)

 Between 10 and 49 employees

− 0.126***

0.029

0.096**

(− 3.51)

(0.73)

(2.26)

 Between 50 and 249 employees

− 0.081**

0.014

0.067

(− 2.33)

(0.34)

(1.55)

Industry

yes

Duration of apprenticeship for occupation

 2 years (reference)

 3 years

0.007

0.088***

− 0.081***

0.013

0.110***

− 0.097***

0.014

0.093***

− 0.079***

(− 0.32)

(4.23)

(− 3.62)

(0.62)

(5.37)

(− 4.50)

(− 0.47)

(3.27)

(− 2.61)

Share of early terminations by occupation

0.001**

− 0.003***

0.002***

0.000

− 0.001**

0.001

− 0.000

− 0.005**

0.005**

(2.46)

(-5.53)

(3.53)

(0.51)

(-2.15)

(1.60)

(-0.13)

(-2.32)

(2.56)

Schooling

No certificate (reference)

 Lower secondary school leaving certificate

− 0.130***

0.060*

0.071*

− 0.169***

0.065*

0.103***

− 0.186***

0.051

0.134**

(− 3.85)

(1.67)

(1.77)

(− 5.32)

(1.78)

(2.78)

(− 4.56)

(1.09)

(2.59)

 Pre-vocational school leaving certificate

− 0.023

− 0.020

0.043

− 0.042

− 0.020

0.061

− 0.048

− 0.054

0.102

(− 0.43)

(− 0.35)

(0.67)

(− 0.80)

(-0.33)

(0.99)

(− 0.59)

(− 0.63)

(1.06)

 Vocational school leaving certificate

− 0.089

0.031

0.058

− 0.124

0.033

0.091

− 0.145

0.065

0.080

(1.14)

(0.36)

(0.68)

(− 1.64)

(0.39)

(1.13)

(− 1.53)

(0.63)

(0.78)

 Secondary school leaving certificate

− 0.198***

0.107***

0.091**

− 0.24***

0.109***

0.135***

− 0.253***

0.083

0.169***

(− 5.21)

(2.70)

(2.08)

(− 6.54)

(2.63)

(3.28)

(− 5.05)

(1.51)

(2.98)

Higher school leaving certificate

− 0.093*

0.049

0.044

− 0.116**

0.015

0.101*

− 0.138**

− 0.037

0.176**

(− 1.85)

(0.89)

(0.76)

(− 2.47)

(0.29)

(1.90)

(− 2.27)

(− 0.54)

(2.54)

others

− 0.116

0.047

0.069

− 0.116

0.053

0.062

− 0.041

− 0.282

0.324*

(− 1.36)

(0.52)

(0.65)

('− 1.18)

(0.57)

(0.57)

(− 0.27)

(− 1.49)

(1.94)

Individual characteristics

 Female

0.036*

0.051**

− 0.087***

0.029

0.079***

− 0.108***

0.018

0.108***

− 0.126***

(1.72)

(2.46)

(− 3.83)

(1.44)

(3.98)

(− 4.99)

(0.65)

(3.94)

(− 4.33)

 German nationality

− 0.136***

0.038

0.098**

− 0.134***

0.037

0.097**

− 0.196***

0.089

0.107

(3.6)

(0.87)

(2.05)

(− 3.44)

(0.87)

(2.08)

(− 3.35)

(1.37)

(1.57)

 Over 20 years at termination

0.103***

-0.019

− 0.084***

0.116***

0.021

− 0.095***

0.070**

0.012

− 0.083

(4.60)

(-0.38)

(− 3.15)

(5.41)

(− 0.92)

(− 3.71)

(2.43)

(0.42)

(− 2.53)

Start of VET

 1999 (reference)

 2000

0.029

− 0.017

− 0.011

0.016

− 0.018

0.002

0.002

0.005

− 0.007

(1.27)

(− 0.79)

(− 0.47)

(0.72)

(− 0.78)

(0.07)

(0.05)

(0.17)

(− 0.22)

 2001

0.028

− 0.016

− 0.12

0.020

− 0.016

− 0.003

0.023

0.017

− 0.007

(1.18)

(− 0.69)

(− 0.49)

(0.86)

(− 0.71)

(− 0.149)

(0.70)

(0.54)

(− 0.22)

 2002

0.069***

− 0.018

− 0.051*

0.059**

0.017

− 0.042

0.058*

0.007

− 0.65*

(2.86)

(− 0.77)

(− 1.90)

(2.37)

('− 0.70)

(− 1.59)

(1.68)

(0.20)

(− 1.83)

N

2896

2896

1539

Pseudo-R²

0.080***

0.062***

0.0726***