Table 4 Logit model for the probability of succeeding in the second VET programme (marginal effects)

Time of termination

 Trial period (reference)

  First year¹

− 0.002

− 0.003

− 0.063

− 0.005

− 0.007

− 0.067*

(− 0.05)

(− 0.11)

(− 1.63)

(− 0.20)

(− 0.26)

(− 1.72)

  Second year

− 0.051*

− 0.049

− 0.055

− 0.045

− 0.040

− 0.042

(− 1.72)

(− 1.65)

(− 1.28)

(− 1.49)

(− 1.36)

(− 0.97)

  Third/Fourth year

− 0.192***

− 0.181***

− 0.185***

− 0.191***

− 0.184***

− 0.179***

(− 4.70)

(− 4.35)

(− 3.14)

(− 4.75)

(− 4.42)

(− 3.09)

Change in occupation

− 0.194***

− 0.200***

− 0.211***

− 0.194***

− 0.198***

− 0.212***

(− 7.86)

(− 8.36)

(-6.37)

(− 7.77)

(− 8.18)

(− 6.47)

Training conditions

 Change in larger establishment with higher wages (reference)

 Change in smaller establishment with lower wages

− 0.072*

− 0.097***

− 0.113**

− 0.044

− 0.077**

− 0.098**

(− 1.87)

(− 2.63)

(− 2.31)

(− 1.12)

(− 2.07)

(− 2.01)

 Change in larger establishment with lower wages

− 0.074**

− 0.074**

− 0.021

− 0.065**

− 0.064**

− 0.014

(− 2.39)

(− 2.50)

(− 0.52)

(− 2.08)

(− 2.17)

(− 0.35)

 Change in smaller establishment with higher wages

'− 0.059*

− 0.067**

− 0.011

− 0.041

− 0.057*

0.001

(− 1.80)

(− 2.21)

(− 0.25)

(− 1.20)

(− 1.81)

(0.02)

Log of VET earnings

0.024

0.035

0.018

(1.09)

(1.53)

(0.54)

Training conditions (2nd VET)

Establishment size

 More than 250 employees (reference)

 Less than 10 employees

0.036

0.060

(− 0.81)

(− 1.33)

 Between 10 and 49 employees

0.045

0.066

(− 1.04)

(− 1.50)

 Between 50 and 249 employees

0.007

− 0.005

(0.15)

(− 0.12)

Economic sector

Yes

Occupation at the 1-digit level

Yes

Yes

Duration of apprenticeship for occupation

 3.5 years (reference)

 2 years

0.019

− 0.038

− 0.032

0.020

− 0.019

(0.34)

(− 0.95)

(− 0.62)

(0.36)

(− 0.36)

 3 years

− 0.041

− 0.110

− 0.093**

− 0.053

− 0.099***

(− 0.97)

(− 4.24)

(− 2.55)

(− 1.23)

(− 2.70)

Schooling

 No certificate (reference)

 Lower secondary school leaving certificate

0.002

− 0.019

− 0.095

(0.03)

(− 0.40)

(− 1.33)

 Pre-vocational school leaving certificate

0.005

− 0.004

− 0.203

(0.06)

(− 0.06)

(− 1.54)

 Vocational school leaving certificate

0.038

− 0.020

− 0.127

(0.38)

(− 0.19)

(− 0.96)

 Secondary school leaving certificate

0.086

0.046

− 0.045

(1.62)

(0.88)

(0.59)

 Higher school leaving certificate

0.020

− 0.009

− 0.083

(0.27)

(-0.15)

(− 0.88)

 Others

0.014

0.011

− 0.475*

(0.12)

(0.09)

(− 1.77)

Individual characteristics

 Female

0.004

0.044*

− 0.049

0.003

− 0.044*

− 0.46

(0.14)

(− 1.69)

(− 1.38)

(0.12)

(− 1.29)

(− 1.29)

 German nationality

− 0.021

0.009

− 0.153

− 0.012

0.012

− 0.157

(− 0.37)

(0.15)

(− 1.77)

(− 0.21)

(0.21)

(− 1.74)

 Over 20 years at time of termination

0.000

0.003

− 0.006

0.016

0.010

0.006

(− 0.01)

(− 0.09)

(-0.14)

(0.49)

(0.31)

(0.15)

 < one month between VET1 and VET2

0.035

0.029

0.037

0.039

0.031

0.039

(1.43)

(1.19)

(1.09)

(1.62)

(1.29)

(1.13)

 Inverse mills

− 0.122*

− 0.088

− 0.023

(− 1.83)

(− 1.34)

(− 0.26)

N

2042

2042

1083

2004

2004

1064

Pseudo-R²

0.071***

0.052***

0.0583***

0.0669***

0.0485***

0.0531***