Early termination of vocational training: dropout or stopout?

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 6 Logit model for the probability of changing occupation by timing of termination only stopouts (marginal effects)

	With training cell clustered	With training cell clustered and training occupation with less than 50% early termination rate
Time of premature apprenticeship contract termination
Trial period (reference)
First year of apprenticeship¹	− 0.055**	− 0.079**
First year of apprenticeship¹	(− 1.99)	(− 2.08)
Second year of apprenticeship	− 0.151***	− 0.1684***
Second year of apprenticeship	(− 5.42)	(− 4.36)
Third/Fourth year of apprenticeship	− 0.266***	− 0.323***
Third/Fourth year of apprenticeship	(− 7.45)	(− 6.57)
Log of VET earnings	− 0.072***	− 0.099***
Log of VET earnings	(− 3.27)	(− 3.22)
N	2043	1084
Pseudo R2	0.0954***	0.1219***

Source: Saarland Apprenticeship Panel. Author’s own calculations
Further control variables are age at termination. Establishment size. Economic sector. Occupation, schooling, gender, German nationality and the start of the apprenticeship. The detailed results are available upon request
*p < 0.10. **p < 0.05. *** p < 0.01. ¹Between 5 and 12 months after the start of VET