Early termination of vocational training: dropout or stopout?

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 7 Logit and multinomial logit model without persons with higher secondary school leaving certificates (marginal effects)

Variables	Logit model		Training cell cluster			Training cell cluster with low early termination rate
Variables	With training cell clustered	With training cell clustered and training occupation with less than 50% early termination rate	Dropout (multinomial logit modell)	Stopout with no change in occupation (multi nomial logit Modell)	Stopout with change in occupation (multi nomial logit Modell)	Dropout (multinomial logit modell)	Stopout with no change in occupation (multi nomial logit Modell)	Stopout with change in occupation (multi nomial logit Modell)
Time of termination
Trial period (reference)
First year	− 0.027	− 0.022	0.023	0.039	− 0.062**	0.017	0.064*	0.081**
First year	(− 1.10)	(− 0.63)	− 0.94	− 1.6	(− 2.46)	− 0.5	− 1.88	(− 2.37)
Second year	− 0.069***	− 0.076**	0.064***	0.096***	− 0.160***	0.074**	0.105***	0.018***
Second year	(− 2.93)	(− 2.33)	− 2.77	− 4.13	− 6.48	− 2.29	− 3.21	(− 5.44)
Third/Fourth year	− 0.156***	− 0.144	0.161**	0.133***	− 0.294***	0.159***	0.177***	0.336***
Third/Fourth year	(− 5.34)	(− 3.54)	− s5.5	− 4.62	− 9.18	− 3.89	− 4.47	(− 7.65)
N	2.695	1.403	2.695			1.403
Pseudo R²	0.0418***	0.0607***	0.0561***			0.0688***

Source: Saarland Apprenticeship Panel. Author’s own calculations
Further control variables are age at termination, establishment characteristics, Occupation, schooling, gender German nationality and the start of the apprenticeship. The detailed results are available upon request
*p < 0.10. **p < 0.05. ***p < 0.01. ¹ Between 5 and 12 months after the start of VET