The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 11 First-differences regression (occupation-state-level, apprentices with low-level school degree)

Dependent variable (log):\(\Delta {a}_{ost, t-1}\)	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	0.00149^b	0.00126^b	0.00142^b	0.00143^b	0.00144^b
	(0.000621)	(0.000627)	(0.000656)	(0.000663)	(0.000663)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		0.109^a	0.0657^c	0.0455	0.0406
		(0.0372)	(0.0398)	(0.0400)	(0.0403)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			0.000535	0.000449	0.000447
			(0.000580)	(0.000585)	(0.000585)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st-1,t-2}\)			0.0342	0.0142	0.0160
			(0.0383)	(0.0386)	(0.0386)
Trend*East Germany					0.0178^b
					(0.00472)
Occupation-level trends	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Constant	− 0.0348^a	− 0.0292^a	− 0.0297^a	0.554	0.554
	(0.00196)	(0.00264)	(0.00315)	(0.388)	(0.388)
Observations	26,851	26,851	24,046	24,046	24,046
R-squared	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.013	0.014

Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust standard errors in parentheses. ^a Significant at the 1%-level; ^b significant at the 5%-level; ^c significant at the 10%-level. Data sources: Vocational training statistics of the statistical offices of the federal and state governments, ifo Business Climate Index