The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 2 First-differences regression, demand for of apprentices (state-level, 2007–2019)

Log demand for apprentices \(\Delta {d}_{st, t-1}\)	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	0.00318^a	0.00322^a	0.00371^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	(0.000389)	(0.000418)	(0.000455)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			0.00295^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			(0.000633)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)				0.00588^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)				(0.000712)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)				0.00393^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)				(0.000901)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		0.135^a	0.111^b	0.115^b
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		(0.0422)	(0.0381)	(0.0382)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st-1,t-2}\)			0.0963^b	0.0949^b
			(0.0388)	(0.0385)
Constant	0.00176	0.00440	0.00475	0.00293
Constant	(0.00464)	(0.00386)	(0.00373)	(0.00382)
Observations	192	192	192	192
R-Squared	0.136	0.193	0.332	0.342

Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust standard errors in parentheses. ^a Significant at the 1%-level; ^b significant at the 5%-level; ^c significant at the 10%-level. Data sources: Federal Employment Agency and BIBB-Survey of new apprenticeship contracts as of 30 September; ifo Business Climate Index and ifo Employment Barometer