The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 3 First-differences regression, unfilled vacancies and unsuccessful applicants (state-level, 2007–2019)

Dependent variable:	Log unfilled vacancies \(\Delta {v}_{st, t-1}\)			Log unsuccessful applicants \(\Delta {u}_{st, t-1}\)
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	0.00876^b	0.00868^b	0.0102^a	− 0.00217	− 0.00193	− 0.00206
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	(0.00302)	(0.00308)	(0.00308)	(0.00562)	(0.00559)	(0.00587)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			0.0116^a			0.000764
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			(0.00338)			(0.00452)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		− 0.247	− 0.338		0.699^b	0.695^c
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		(0.277)	(0.248)		(0.304)	(0.344)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st-1,t-2}\)			− 0.170			− 0.362
			(0.168)			(0.367)
Constant	0.0888^a	0.0840^a	0.0755^a	− 0.0274^b	− 0.0137	− 0.0206
Constant	(0.0103)	(0.0106)	(0.0101)	(0.0105)	(0.0114)	(0.0119)
Observations	192	192	192	192	192	192
R-Squared	0.034	0.040	0.099	0.001	0.029	0.037

Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust standard errors in parentheses. ^a Significant at the 1%-level; ^b significant at the 5%-level; ^c significant at the 10%-level. Data sources: Federal Employment Agency; ifo Business Climate Index and ifo Employment Barometer