The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19

Empirical Research in Vocational Education and Training

Table 4 First-differences regression, new annual apprenticeship contracts (state-level, 2007–2019)

Dep.variable: log apprenticeship contracts \(\Delta {a}_{st, t-1}\)	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	0.00281^a	0.00285^a	0.00327^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)	(0.000405)	(0.000451)	(0.000490)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			0.00243^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{BCI}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)			(0.000701)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)				0.00507^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t,t-1}\)				(0.000760)
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)				0.00332^a
\(\Delta {\stackrel{-}{EB}}_{Q2t-1,t-2}\)				(0.00100)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		0.139^a	0.119^b	0.122^b
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st,t-1}\)		(0.0466)	(0.0411)	(0.0415)
\(\Delta\) log number of school graduates \({g}_{st-1,t-2}\)			0.106^b	0.104^b
			(0.0390)	(0.0387)
Constant	− 0.00308	− 0.000355	0.000408	− 0.00119
Constant	(0.00508)	(0.00415)	(0.00391)	(0.00402)
Observations	192	192	192	192
R-squared	0.095	0.149	0.248	0.253

Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-robust standard errors in parentheses. ^a Significant at the 1%-level; ^b significant at the 5%-level; ^c significant at the 10%-level. Data sources: Vocational training statistics of the statistical offices of the federal and state governments, ifo Business Climate Index and ifo Employment Barometer