Table 1 Discrete time event history model for the transition to vocational training in the dual system after secondary schooling (observed within the first 3 years after school), Data: GSOEP 2012, Federal Labour Office 2014, Federal Statistical Office 2014, own calculations

Time-specific information

 Baseline1 year of school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school)

0.082*** (0.015)

0.082*** (0.018)

0.082***(0.017)

0.081***(0.018)

 Baseline2 1st year after school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school)

0.062** (0.021)

0.062*** (0.024)

0.062***(0.023)

0.064***(0.024)

 Baseline3 2nd year after school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school)

0.015 (0.035)

0.015(0.039)

0.014(0.039)

0.017(0.044)

Unemployment information on regional level (s)

 Unemployment rate (district)

−0.010*** (0.002)

−0.016*** (0.003)

–0.009***(0.004)

–0.016***(0.005)

 Average unemployment (1st neighbour districts)

−0.008** (0.004)

−0.017** (0.002)

-0.013** (0.004)

 Average unemployment (2nd neighbour districts)

0.004(0.001)

Age-specific population information on regional levels (s)

 Change in 15–18 year olds (district)

−0.007*** (0.004)

−0.008** (0.004)

−0.006* (0.004)

−0.007* (0.005)

 Change in 15–18 year olds (1st neighbour district)

−0.004(0.015)

0.001(0.016)

0.004(0.021)

 Change in 15–18 year olds (2nd neighbour district)

−0.008

 Year (1999–2006) (ref. 2007–2011

−0.019*** (0.023)

−0.019*** (0.022)

−0.019*** (0.022)

−0.017** (0.022)

Personal information

 Sex (male)

0.117*** (0.016)

0.119*** (0.016)

0.114*** (0.016)

0.114*** (0.017)

 Dropout without certif. (ref. lower sec.)

−0.046* (0.026)

−0.052** (0.027)

−0.055(0.028)

−0.053(0.028)

 Intermediate secondary certif. (ref. lower sec.)

0.108*** (0.018)

0.107*** (0.017)

0.108*** (0.017)

0.109*** (0.018)

Social and ethnic background information

 Parents have intermediate school degree (ref. no/lower school degree)

0.068*** (0.021)

0.073*** (0.021)

0.078***(0.021)

0.073*** (0.023)

 Parents have university entrance diploma (ref. no/lower school degree)

−0.130*** (0.022)

−0.129*** (0.021)

–0.127***(0.024)

−0.127*** (0.025)

 Parents have vocational training degree (ref. no voc. degree)

0.061*** (0.022)

0.063*** (0.021)

0.058** (0.021)

0.060** (0.022)

 Parents have university degree (ref. no voc. degree)

0.002 (0.037)

0.000(0.040)

−0.001(0.041)

−0.000(0.041)

 Immigrant background

−0.034*** (0.020)

−0.037** (0.020)

−0.040** (0.021)

−0.034** (0.019)

Interaction terms

 Unempl. home district * Unempl. 1st neighb. district

0.001** (0.000)

0.001* (0.000)

0.001** (0.000)

 Unempl. home district * Unempl.1st neighb. * Unempl. 2nd neighb. district

0.000(0.001)

 Unempl. home district * dropout

−0.002(0.001)

 Unempl. home district * intermed. school certif.

0.002(0.002)

 Unempl. 1st neighb. district * dropout

0.011(0.014)

 Unempl. 1st neighb. district * intermed. school certif.

0.016** (0.002)

 Unempl. home district * Unempl.1st neighb. district * dropout

0.004(0.022)

 Unempl. home district * Unempl.1st neighb. district * intermed. school certif.

−0.005* (0.022)

 (Mc fadden’s) pseudo R²

0.1547

0.1571

0.1581

0.1688

 LR

1726.07

1783.76

1794.33

1810.38

 N person years (n persons)

3.970 (2.144)

3970 (2144)

3970 (2144)

3970 (2144)