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Table 1 Discrete time event history model for the transition to vocational training in the dual system after secondary schooling (observed within the first 3 years after school), Data: GSOEP 2012, Federal Labour Office 2014, Federal Statistical Office 2014, own calculations

From: Spatial structure counts: the relevance of regional labour-market conditions for educational transitions to vocational training

  Model1 Model2 Model3 Model4
Time-specific information
 Baseline1 year of school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school) 0.082*** (0.015) 0.082*** (0.018) 0.082***(0.017) 0.081***(0.018)
 Baseline2 1st year after school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school) 0.062** (0.021) 0.062*** (0.024) 0.062***(0.023) 0.064***(0.024)
 Baseline3 2nd year after school leaving (ref. 3rd year after school) 0.015 (0.035) 0.015(0.039) 0.014(0.039) 0.017(0.044)
Unemployment information on regional level (s)
 Unemployment rate (district) −0.010*** (0.002) −0.016*** (0.003) –0.009***(0.004) –0.016***(0.005)
 Average unemployment (1st neighbour districts)   −0.008** (0.004) −0.017** (0.002) -0.013** (0.004)
 Average unemployment (2nd neighbour districts)    0.004(0.001)  
Age-specific population information on regional levels (s)
 Change in 15–18 year olds (district) −0.007*** (0.004) −0.008** (0.004) −0.006* (0.004) −0.007* (0.005)
 Change in 15–18 year olds (1st neighbour district)   −0.004(0.015) 0.001(0.016) 0.004(0.021)
 Change in 15–18 year olds (2nd neighbour district)    −0.008  
 Year (1999–2006) (ref. 2007–2011 −0.019*** (0.023) −0.019*** (0.022) −0.019*** (0.022) −0.017** (0.022)
Personal information
 Sex (male) 0.117*** (0.016) 0.119*** (0.016) 0.114*** (0.016) 0.114*** (0.017)
 Dropout without certif. (ref. lower sec.) −0.046* (0.026) −0.052** (0.027) −0.055(0.028) −0.053(0.028)
 Intermediate secondary certif. (ref. lower sec.) 0.108*** (0.018) 0.107*** (0.017) 0.108*** (0.017) 0.109*** (0.018)
Social and ethnic background information     
 Parents have intermediate school degree (ref. no/lower school degree) 0.068*** (0.021) 0.073*** (0.021) 0.078***(0.021) 0.073*** (0.023)
 Parents have university entrance diploma (ref. no/lower school degree) −0.130*** (0.022) −0.129*** (0.021) –0.127***(0.024) −0.127*** (0.025)
 Parents have vocational training degree (ref. no voc. degree) 0.061*** (0.022) 0.063*** (0.021) 0.058** (0.021) 0.060** (0.022)
 Parents have university degree (ref. no voc. degree) 0.002 (0.037) 0.000(0.040) −0.001(0.041) −0.000(0.041)
 Immigrant background −0.034*** (0.020) −0.037** (0.020) −0.040** (0.021) −0.034** (0.019)
Interaction terms
 Unempl. home district * Unempl. 1st neighb. district   0.001** (0.000) 0.001* (0.000) 0.001** (0.000)
 Unempl. home district * Unempl.1st neighb. * Unempl. 2nd neighb. district   0.000(0.001)  
 Unempl. home district * dropout     −0.002(0.001)
 Unempl. home district * intermed. school certif.     0.002(0.002)
 Unempl. 1st neighb. district * dropout     0.011(0.014)
 Unempl. 1st neighb. district * intermed. school certif.     0.016** (0.002)
 Unempl. home district * Unempl.1st neighb. district * dropout     0.004(0.022)
 Unempl. home district * Unempl.1st neighb. district * intermed. school certif.     −0.005* (0.022)
 (Mc fadden’s) pseudo R² 0.1547 0.1571 0.1581 0.1688
 LR 1726.07 1783.76 1794.33 1810.38
 N person years (n persons) 3.970 (2.144) 3970 (2144) 3970 (2144) 3970 (2144)
  1. Presented are average marginal effects (AMEs); robust standard errors in parentheses
  2. Significance level: * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.001